Why this safari plan was refused
Vurara Safaris refuses plans when the requested experience has a negligible probability of occurring. This protects travelers from building expectations around events that are unlikely to happen.
Refusal Summary
Refusal Type
Timing Impossibility
What was requested
A 7-day Kenya safari in April with Mara River crossings as the primary objective.
Why it fails under real conditions
The Great Migration herds are in the southern Serengeti during April, approximately 300km from the Mara River. River crossings at the Mara occur between July and October. The probability of witnessing a crossing in April is below 5%. Building a trip around this expectation would result in certain disappointment.
Constraints Violated
Timing constraint
Migration herds not present in northern Mara during April
Probability threshold
Less than 5% chance of witnessing target experience
Geographic distance
Herds located 300+ km from requested crossing points
What would make this viable
Change travel dates to July–October
River crossings occur when herds move north. Peak crossing probability is August–September. A July–October window would align with actual migration patterns.
Follow the herds to southern Serengeti
In April, the migration is in the southern Serengeti and Ndutu area. A Tanzania-focused itinerary would allow witnessing calving season and herd concentrations.
Remove river crossing as primary objective
A Kenya safari in April offers excellent wildlife viewing in the Mara (resident game, big cats, fewer crowds) without the migration spectacle. Adjusting expectations enables a viable trip.
Why Vurara Safaris refuses instead of guessing
A weak recommendation is worse than no recommendation. If Vurara Safaris issued a verdict for this plan, the traveler would spend significant money and time pursuing an experience that cannot occur. Refusal protects the traveler from regret and preserves the integrity of Vurara Safaris verdicts. When we say a plan works, it works. When it cannot work, we say so clearly.